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X_WL

Runs Scored^1.82/((Runs Scored^1.82)+(Runs Allowed^1.82))

That’s the formula for “Expected Won-Loss” (X_WL), a stat that looks at a team’s run differential and determines what their won-loss record should be. There’s always some discrepancy between this expectancy and a team’s actual results, but generally only by a handful of games over the course of a long season. If you outscore your opponents, you should have a winning record. If they outscore you, you’ll lose more than you win. If they’re about equal, then your record will be around .500 too.

With the new playoff format for 2012, the three division winners and the top two non-division winners will now make the post-season. Don’t look now, but 25 games into the year, guess who those five teams in the NL would be based on X_WL?

East Division Champ: Washington (14-10)
Central Division Champ: St. Louis (18-6)
West Division Champ: Los Angeles (14-11)
Wild Card #1: Atlanta (14-11)
Wild Card #2: Houston (14-11)

Hello, Astros.

Now of course, X_WL does NOT equal actual WL, and Houston’s real record is flipped from the expected (11-14). It’s also WAY too early in the season to start paying much attention to the standings, and WAY too early to be talking about the playoffs. But the fact is that the Astros have outscored their opponents 118-104 thus far this year. Even before their just-completed sweep of the Mets, they had a positive run differential, and they’ve maintained that stat pretty much all year.

Statistics have a way of normalizing themselves over the long haul, so if the Astros continue outscoring their opponents all year, they’ll eventually start winning more games than they lose. They won’t stay below .500 for long. And while it’s admittedly ridiculous to start making plans for purchasing playoff tickets at this juncture, your 2012 Astros have a legitimate chance of, at worst, finishing the year a heck of a lot higher in the standings than anybody though they would coming off 106 losses last year.

Even .500 would be a huge accomplishment and an exciting improvement for this squad. Remember how much fun it was to watch the young kids in 1992 finish .500 after 97 losses the year before? No one else in the NL Central has particularly distinguished themselves yet this year, besides the Cardinals, so a second-place finish might not be out of reach. I hesitate to aim that high, but it has happened before. And remember, no team had ever gone worst-to-first before 1991, but the Braves and the Twins both did it that season, en route to the most improbable of World Series matchups.

Regardless, this 2012 team has been a ton of fun to watch so far on the young season. Young teams can slump just as quickly as they can streak. But what if… just what if? What a 50th anniversary gift that would be, and what a sendoff to the National League, to add one more banner to the Minute Maid Park rafters.

#DefendHouston! #MinuteMaidMarch!

So ever since Peter Gammons posted this Tweet yesterday, the entire Astros online fanbase has been in an uproar. No, nothing has been confirmed yet, but this is not a time to take chances and stay silent. Houston fans, if you don’t want to see your team in the American League by 2013, the time to act is NOW.

Two online petitions have been created already to fight this change. Go here and sign:

http://www.saveourstros.org/

http://www.change.org/petitions/bud-selig-leave-the-houston-astros-in-the-national-league

I’d also encourage sending letters directly. Following in What the Heck, Bobby?‘s footsteps, here is the letter that I mailed to Drayton McLane, Bud Selig and Jim Crane today. Please feel free to copy and use any or all of this in letters of your own:

 

October 12, 2011

 

Mr. Drayton McLane

Houston Astros

501 Crawford Street

Houston, TX  77002

 

Mr. Allen H. Selig, Commissioner

Major League Baseball

245 Park Avenue, 31st Floor

New York, New York  10167

 

Mr. James R. Crane, CEO

Crane Capital Advisors

4409 Montrose Blvd., Ste. 200

Houston, TX 77006-5859

 

Dear Sirs:

It has been reported via MLB.com and numerous other news outlets recently that a proposal is being discussed to move the Houston Astros to the American League. I am writing to express my extreme displeasure about this possibility.

I am a lifelong Houston Astros fan, having been born in Houston and having lived there for the first 20 years of my life. Even though I now live out of state, I still follow the Astros passionately and look forward to traveling every year to attend games whenever I can. Baseball is my first love, and I love to explore baseball history as much as I love to follow the modern game. Baseball is unique among American sports in this way, for the deep, abiding ties it holds to the history of the sport and the legends of the past.

Is it for this reason that moving the Astros to the American League is an extraordinarily bad idea – Houston is a National League city, and always has been. The Astros/Colt .45s franchise just completed its 50th season in the National League, but even dating back to the days of the Houston Buffs/Buffaloes, Houston was a Cardinals or Cubs – National League – affiliate. Houston has never been an American League market, and Houston fans are National League fans. A move to the American League will alienate a great many of these fans, and many of my fellow Astros fans have already said so.

The last Major League team to switch leagues was the Milwaukee Brewers after the 1997 season, from the American League to the National League, but a large part of the argument then was that “Milwaukee used to be a National League city.” The same argument does not at all apply in this case. This time the largest argument in favor of moving has been to “support a natural rivalry between the Astros and the Texas Rangers” – but no significant such rivalry currently exists. The Astros have much more significant current rivalries with the Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Mets, Giants and Dodgers, all of which would be lost in a move to the American League.

Furthermore, Major League Baseball has a historical precedent of placing pairs of teams from the same city or region in opposite leagues. Consider the following:

New York Yankees (AL) / New York Mets (NL)

Baltimore Orioles (AL) / Washington Nationals (NL)

Tampa Bay Rays (AL) / Florida Marlins (NL)

Chicago White Sox (AL) / Chicago Cubs (NL)

Cleveland Indians (AL) / Cincinnati Reds (NL)

Kansas City Royals (AL) / St. Louis Cardinals (NL)

Texas Rangers (AL) / Houston Astros (NL)

Los Angeles Angels (AL) / Los Angeles Dodgers (NL)

Oakland Athletics (AL) / San Francisco Giants (NL)

The only exceptions to this rule are the Phillies and Pirates, both in Pennsylvania but both among the National League’s oldest teams, and the two Mountain Time Zone teams, Colorado and Arizona. Moving the Astros to the American League would violate this rule and kill the National League market in Texas and surrounding states.

A seemingly much more sensible solution would be to move Arizona to the American League. The Diamondbacks are one of Major League Baseball’s youngest franchises, and as such they do not have nearly the history in the National League that Houston does. Furthermore, Phoenix has played host to AL-affiliated teams as recently as 2007 (the Arizona League Royals, A’s and Rangers), not to mention the long history of the Cactus League with teams from both leagues in the state every March. These are all American League ties that the city of Houston has never had. Moving Arizona – or even Colorado – to the American League would give Major League Baseball an American League team in the Mountain region for the first time, and either Mountain team would be a geographically natural fit for the American League West. Such a move would not be nearly as upsetting to the fans in that region as a similar move would be to Houston baseball fans.

I understand the desire to have equal leagues of 15 teams each, and I understand that even moving Arizona or Colorado to the American League would almost certainly result in Houston being moved to the National League West. But Houston was historically a member of the National League West for 25 seasons until the three-division format was introduced in 1994, so I have no problem with such a move, and I doubt that most other Astros fans would either. The outcry was immediate and heartfelt when Peter Gammons reported today that the Astros would likely be moving to the American League, and the fan backlash will be far greater if such a move is in fact completed. Please do not make this a reality.

Even though this was a rough year on the field for Astros fans, I am already looking forward to next year and I am excited about the future. Just please consider the weight of history and the reaction of the fans – your customers – and keep that future in the National League. I appreciate your time and consideration in this matter.

Sincerely,

Cockroach

Nostalgia & Random Stats about Astros History

First of all, there’s this, courtesy of Astros County and Sully Baseball:

The Astros are now nearing the end of their 5oth season, and that’s inspired a fit of nostalgia. My first clear memories of following the Astros date back to when I was 7 years old, in 1987. That led to the obvious realization that after this year, for the first time I’ll have witnessed more seasons of Astros baseball myself than I’ve read about in the history books.

The first of those memories from 1987 was my mom taking us on a tour of the Astrodome a few weeks before the season began. At the end of the tour, we stopped in the gift shop, and my mom bought two things: an ’87 Topps Houston Astros team set for me, and A Silver Odyssey: 25 Years of Houston Astros Baseball on VHS for herself. I have no idea now what happened to that tape, and the documentary has never made it to a DVD release – unsurprising – but Google helped me turn up the majority of the clips on AstrosDaily.com. It’s a must-watch for any die-hard Astros fan, but the film ends on a bittersweet note, with Houston’s defeat in the legendary ’86 NLCS Game 6. Now with 25 years further history between us and that game, and still no World Series title to show, the memory is rather like a Greek tragedy for Houston fans. But it’s a memory that we cherish nonetheless.

So that led me to indulge some historic curiosity. Of course Cleveland has been waiting for a new World Series title 13 years longer than the Astros/Colt .45s have existed. Of course Cubs fans have been waiting 40 years longer than that. And of course 7 other franchises have likewise never won a Series; 2 have never been there at all. But as most Astros fans already know, Houston now has the dubious distinction as the city with the most current seasons of MLB history and no title at all to show. That distinction did belong to the Astros’ opponent this weekend, San Francisco, until the Giants finally won last October to cap their 53rd season in California. Likewise did it take Brooklyn until their 53rd season to win – the beloved ’55 Dodgers – after the World Series began in 1903. But Astros fans can take heart, as they’re nowhere close to the record for futility yet: that mark belongs to the Phillies. It’s easy to forget given their recent dominance, but it took the Phillies 78 seasons, from ’03 until ’80, before they finally claimed their first title.

Another historical oddity discovered while digging all that up: to date, 753 different players have worn a Houston MLB uniform. The Astros’ 1962 expansion brethren, the New York Mets, have used 911 different players over the same 50 seasons. Two franchises 7 years younger, the Padres and Expos/Nationals, have also used more – 793 and 815, respectively. The Angels are only one year older, but they’ve used 107 more players than Houston (860 total), and the Senators/Rangers have used 174 more (927 overall). And the other two 1969 expansion teams, Kansas City (740) and Seattle/Milwaukee (736), are only just behind the Astros in 7 years less time. Assuming a starting roster of 25 players, that means that Houston has used an average of 14.56 additional players each season. The Blue Jays are the next closest expansion-era franchise, with an average annual turnover of 15.83 players. I’m not sure what that means, except that it appears the average Astros player spends more seasons in Houston than the average player for any other expansion-era team. It’s interesting, at any rate.

EDIT: Technically Washington has had a longer wait than Houston since their last title, too. Between the Senators/Twins, Senators/Rangers and Expos/Nationals combined, 2011 is Washington’s 54th non-consecutive season to have an MLB team but not win a World Series.

EDIT 2: Other historical notes – Houston has the second lowest franchise ERA of any expansion team at 3.78, only just behind the Mets at 3.77. And in spite of this year’s troubles, the Astros still have the third highest winning percentage of all expansions teams at .495, behind Toronto’s .497 and the Angels’ .499.

Photos from the CC Hooks’ Friday Doubleheader

Sometimes it’s tough being an Astros fan in Arkansas. Even though our local team, the Arkansas Travelers, has been the AA affiliate of the Angels for 11 years now, the entire state is still deep Cardinals country. I’ve been in this state for 12 years now myself, and I’ve met exactly two other Astros fans here. I’ve learned to love the Travs in their own way, and Minor League Baseball in general, but my heart will always remain in Houston. The one perk I get here is that the Travs play in the Texas League alongside Houston’s AA affiliate, the Corpus Christi Hooks. The Hooks typically come to town twice a year, so I always try to make it out for at least one of their games to see the Astros of the future.

We were out of town the first time that Corpus came here this year, so this past Friday was our chosen date. It turned out to be a lucky choice for me, as Thursday’s game was rained out, so our Friday night tickets became good for a Friday afternoon doubleheader. Our seats were in the front row right behind the Travs’ dugout, and I brought our camera along to document the action.

The Travelers' outfield of Chris Pettit, Mike Trout & Angel Castillo (l to r) waits for the national anthem before Game 1 of the doubleheader.

Hooks shortstop Jonathan Villar (acquired last year in the Oswalt deal) leads off the game.

New Hooks first baseman Kody Hinze takes a throw between innings, with Villar in the background.

Hooks starter Brett Oberholtzer, acquired from Atlanta in the Michael Bourn trade, prepares to pitch in the bottom of the first.

The Angels' top prospect, Mike Trout, takes the field after the first.

Kody Hinze at the plate in the second inning. He singled here and later scored the Hooks' first run.

Hooks center fielder T.J. Steele returns to the dugout after popping up.

Hooks catcher Brian Esposito prepares to hit in the second.

Oberholtzer winds up for a pitch in the bottom of the second. After two hitless innings, he gave up two runs on two hits in the third, then was pulled after a scoreless fourth, ending up with a tough loss.

This is Lance. He works for the Travs' front office now, but he's a fellow Houston native and the second of those two Astros fans I mentioned above.

Crime Dog McGruff was on hand to throw out the ceremonial first pitch for the second game. Fred "Crime Dog" McGriff was nowhere to be found.

Injured Hooks infielder Jimmy Van Ostrand (#25) is seen here on the field between games. #4 is Hooks outfielder Jon Gaston.

This is Shelly, the Arkansas Travelers' mascot. He ran down a kid in left field shortly after this photo was taken.

Adam Bailey makes his Hooks debut in the first inning of the second game, after being called up from Lancaster. He struck out here, but finished the night 2-for-3 with two doubles.

And immediately following Bailey's debut, Jose Carlos Thompson likewise makes his Hooks debut.

Hooks shortstop Brandon Wikoff drives the ball to right field in the second inning of Game 2.

Hooks left fielder Brandon Barnes looks up after taking a ball in the second.

Mike Trout takes a swing in Game 2. He would walk, but wouldn't score.

Trout on first after walking. Hinze & Trout - two future MLB All-Stars?

Hinze at the plate again, in the third inning of Game 2. He flew out here, but finished 1-for-3.

Before leaving, I had to stop by the gift shop to pick up the 2011 Texas League Top Prospects baseball card set. It included these three familiar faces (though now all former Hooks).

Unfortunately for the Hooks, they lost both games this night – Game 1 4-2 in a pre-determined seven innings, and Game 2 6-2 after a sudden thunderstorm ended the game at five. Growing up with the Astrodome, this was my first live experience with a rain delay or a rainout, but it was a fun day at the ballpark regardless. Dickey-Stephens Park (named in part for Hall of Fame catcher and Arkansas native Bill Dickey) sits on the north bank of the Arkansas River, and it’s a great place to see a ballgame.

Carlos Lee needs to go

I’ve tried to be a Carlos Lee supporter. I don’t hate Carlos Lee. Compared to the loathing for him spewed by many Astros fans since the start of last season, I’ve been downright cuddly with the guy. But enough is enough. His time as an Astro needs to come to an end – now.

I’m more upset by the Chris Johnson/Brett Wallace demotions than I am by the Hunter Pence/Michael Bourn trades. I understand the demotions from a purely performance or playing time perspective: Chris Johnson just suffered through an awful July with a .574 OPS. Brett Wallace posted an even worse .433 OPS over the same stretch. Neither of the two is a particularly great defender (although Wallace is at least adequate), and if you can’t hit and you can’t field, you don’t belong in the big leagues. But if the Astros’ trades this month have indicated anything, it’s that they’re very clearly trying to get younger and planning for the future. Both Johnson and Wallace still have a good chance of being a part of that future. Carlos Lee, on the other hand, does not.

Wallace was sent down because J.D. Martinez was called up. I’m excited that J.D. is here. But not at Brett’s expense. I realize that the overwhelming majority of Martinez’ outfield experience is in left, and that the same is true of Carlos Lee. It wouldn’t really be fair, or wise, to call up Martinez straight from AA and then expect him to adjust to big league pitching and to a new position at the same time. But that pushes Lee out of left. The only other place you can put Lee is at first base, which pushes Wallace to the bench, and that’s not fair or wise for a young player, either. So I’d rather see Wallace play every day at AAA than ride the bench in Houston. But I’d really rather see Wallace play every day in Houston, and see Carlos Lee cut loose.

It’s true that Lee has been a better hitter than Wallace for the majority of the season. Since an awful April in which Carlos hit .194, he’s posted an .824 OPS over the next three months. Compare that to an .828 OPS for Pence this season, and an .831 OPS for Lee in his last “good” season of 2009. Minus the home run power, El Caballo seems to have regained his stroke. But he’s also 35 years old this year, and he’ll be 36 in 2012 for the final year of his contract, and there’s no way on Earth that he’ll be a part of the Astros team after that. They’re on the hook for the remainder of his salary whether he plays here or not. So if they’re really dedicated to this youth movement, if they’re really dedicated to the future, then why keep giving at bats to a guy who has no chance to be a part of that?

It may be that the Astros’ hands are genuinely tied in the matter. Even if it wasn’t for his massive contract making him undesirable, Lee has full no-trade protection, and with his cattle ranch in Houston, he’s not inclined to go anywhere. Ed Wade may have asked him to waive his no-trade clause, and Carlos may have flat out refused. That’s his right. But everyone that knows Carlos personally will talk about what a nice guy he is… so why not do something for the good of the team? Does he really want to be the only 35-year-old on a team full of 25-and-unders? A team that’s buried in the cellar this year, that probably won’t be much better next year, with no shot at the postseason before he’s forced to sign elsewhere anyway? If the Astros will eat a healthy chunk of the salary they’ll be paying regardless, there are contenders out there that would love to add a bat like Lee’s for the stretch run. His only taste of the playoffs so far was when he was a 24-year-old sophomore himself back in 2000, and his White Sox got swept in three games by Seattle. Wouldn’t he like another shot at the World Series? There’s no better time for that than now.

I realize that no team likes to pay a guy to play elsewhere. But it makes sense for the Astros to try and do just that in Lee’s case. If they’ll agree to pay two-thirds, or three-fourths, or even nine-tenths of his remaining salary, they’ll still save themselves a few million dollars and likely be able to get a prospect or two in return – guys that would have a chance to be a part of Houston’s next winner. I don’t mind Brett Wallace’s AAA exile so much if the Astros are actively shopping Lee in the meantime. There’s no safer bet to clear waivers this month than Carlos, so a trade could – and should – still happen. Maybe it will take Jim Crane’s new ownership for that to happen, but Crane should officially take over this month too. It would be better to get even long-shot prospects in return for Lee than nothing at all. But it will be better for the long-term health of this club either way to let Wallace man first base in Houston than to leave him (or J.D. Martinez) stuck behind Carlos Lee for another year. If Lee adamantly refuses a trade, then be bold and just cut him loose.

Maybe Wallace isn’t the long-term answer at first base; maybe Kody Hinze or Jonathon Singleton is. Maybe Chris Johnson isn’t the long-term answer at third, either, and maybe Jimmy Paredes is. But we won’t know until we let them play, and Wallace and Johnson are more ready for the big leagues now than Paredes or Hinze are. Yes, Brett and CJ have had their struggles, but they’ve shown signs of something better, too. By the time that Hinze and Paredes genuinely are ready for the big leagues, we should know about Wallace and Johnson for sure. As long as there’s not anyone standing in their way. When Carlos Lee was signed to his big contract, the Astros were just one year removed from the World Series and had only missed the playoffs in 2006 on the final day of the season. They’re in a much different place now, and Lee’s place on this team no longer makes any sense.

Kudos to you, El Caballo, and thanks for some great moments. But it’s time to ride off into the Houston sunset.

Calm after the storm, or eye of the hurricane?

So the 2011 MLB non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and the Astros were expectedly very active. Though perhaps surprisingly less active than some/most had expected or predicted. But I don’t believe that they’re done dealing yet.

Hunter Pence is gone. Michael Bourn is gone. Jeff Keppinger is gone, too, and 9 prospects have come back in return for that trio so far, with one more yet to be named. I’m… numb. Sad. And worn out. Though less sad at this time this year than I was one year ago (Bourn & Pence don’t have nearly the Houston legacy that Oswalt & Berkman did). And maybe… more hopeful for the future now, too. Last year’s trades were a sign that the Astros recognized the need to rebuild, but other moves (like the Wandy/Myers extensions) were signs that they hadn’t yet fully embraced the idea. There’s no question that they’re in full-on rebuilding mode now. As well they should be.

It would be easy to argue that Ed Wade should have received more in return on any or all of the deals he made this month, and I might even agree with that. I’d be a good deal more enthusiastic if Domonic Brown and Mike Minor were wearing Astros pinstripes tomorrow. But regardless of what anyone – myself included – may think, reality is that the trade value for Pence & Bourn was never going to be higher than it was this week. They needed to be dealt now for the best possible return, and if this was the best than anyone else was willing to give up for them – so be it. Pull the trigger. We’ll never know if a better deal could have been had, so there’s no point in wasting further energy moaning about it now. We’ll take what we’ve got and move on. As is always true in any trade involving prospects, we won’t know for years whether these deals were honestly good ones or bad ones anyway.

What we do know now is this – the Houston farm system is notably stronger today than it was a month ago. I believe it will get stronger still this month, too, as I expect at least Wandy to find a new home before September 1, and very possibly Myers or Michaels or Barmes as well. If Myers and Wandy aren’t dealt in August, they’ll be traded over the winter, which is fine, as they don’t have the same urgency for maximum value as Bourn & Pence. Michaels and Barmes will (and should be) allowed to walk as free agents if not dealt, leaving Carlos Lee (35) as by far the elder statesman on the 2012 club. Unless by some miracle they manage to move Lee too, which would be great news for Brett Wallace and which should perhaps be the top priority for a rebuilding club. That would leave Brandon Lyon (31) as the highest paid and oldest regular on the 2012 club; I don’t expect they’ll be able to get anyone to take him on after his health & performance this season.

We also know that the Astros should officially have a new owner by the end of August. I expect we’ll have a new GM this winter, as well, and it wouldn’t shock me to see a new field manager too. Whatever else may happen, the 2012 Astros will be much younger, much less experienced… but hopefully the start of great new things. Only time will tell, but at least we know now they’re not holding onto delusions of past glories any longer. The fastest way back to success from here is to tear it down and start over.

So… how about that 2012 Draft?

Astros fans, want to see your team dominate atop the standings again? Then look no further: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings/

Maybe that’s tacky, but as bad as this season has been already, I’d feel even worse about it if they somehow put on another huge late surge and play themselves out of the #1 draft spot. Fortunately (or unfortunately, take your pick), they’ve buried themselves far enough down that it will take a huge late surge to look down on anyone else. The Mariners have lost 16 straight and still lag 10 games back of worst.

So who do you like for 2012? Mock drafts abound, though of course it’s much, much too early to consider anything even remotely concrete. It’s one of the few things Astros fans have to look forward to these days, however, so it’s fun to speculate. The consensus seems to be that there’s no consensus – no Bryce Harper or Steven Strasburg this year – but there does seem to be a lot of chatter about Lance McCullers and Mark Appel. Both are exciting prospects, I’ll grant, but I’m leery of taking any pitcher #1 overall. Sure, you’ve got David Price, but you’ve got a longer list of luminaries such as Brian Bullington, Matt Anderson, Paul Wilson, Kris Benson, Ben McDonald and Brien Taylor. Even Strasburg is still hurt, and who knows if he’ll be the same? The Astros are a team sorely lacking in power, so I’d much rather see them go after a Trey Williams or a Victor Roache. Or… I’m really starting to like this Nick Williams kid out of Galveston Ball. We shall see what we shall see…

Our other hope of a bright spot right now is Sunday’s looming trade deadline, and is it bad that I’d be most excited to see Bourn, Pence, Myers, Wandy and Barmes all wearing opposing uniforms on August 1? Not that I have anything against any of those guys – Bourn, Pence and Wandy in particular are favorites – but the 2011 Astros are truly, historically bad. Their bad-ness may be the best thing that could happen to this franchise right now, as it’s unmasked entirely the need for rebuilding, with no false hope of contention left to hide behind. For a team with this many holes, the fastest way back to contention is to trade every veteran you can for the best prospects that you can, then let the young guys grow up together (see: 1991 Astros, who laid the groundwork for the most successful decade in franchise history).

I’m as eager as anyone for the Astros to get on with the future and blow up the roster now, but I don’t expect all five of those guys to be gone by next week. But, y’know – that’s okay. With the exception of Barmes, it’s important to remember that none of the Astros’ key veterans are in line for free agency this winter. So anybody they don’t trade now, they could still move for prospects in the off-season. It could be argued that they’ll get better value in the heat of a pennant race, but that’s not always necessarily the case, so it behooves the club to find the best possible deal. No, they shouldn’t set their asking price so high now that they’ll be forced to take a lesser deal later, but neither should they trade anybody now just for the sake of offloading them immediately. It’s an inexact science, and it’s maddening, but the flexibility is ultimately better than having their hand forced by expiring contracts right now. Or it should be. I’ll be most upset if the team doesn’t look drastically different – and younger – by 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

Wish List for a Lost Season

“Wild, dark times are rumbling toward us.” -Heinrich Heine

These are sad days to be an Astros fan. The first domino has fallen with the trade of Jeff Keppinger this week, and over the next 10 days we expect to hear of several more. I’m on board with that; our Astros, in their 50th season, appear to be worse in 2011 than they’ve ever been before. I feel like it will be a huge upset if they don’t end up beating the 1991 squad for the worst record in Houston history, if they don’t end up over 100 losses and last in the big leagues this year. Admittedly, nothing that happens the remainder of this month will likely be quite as depressing as the weekend before July 31 last year, when we learned how it would have felt to see Bagwell and Biggio in opposing uniforms. But as we wait for news about who else is leaving town, and as we wait to face nemesis Carlos Zambrano this afternoon, my mind turns to thoughts of the ways that Brad Mills & Co. can make the remainder of 2011 more exciting than a race for the #1 draft pick.

Catcher: We love Humberto Quintero. He’s not Brad Ausmus, and he’s not Tony Eusebio, but we love him nonetheless. Q paired with any available backup on hand is fine; there’s not much wrong you can do here, other than rushing Jason Castro back from his knee surgery. If Castro is legitimately ready to go by September, then I’d love to see him, as Q really shouldn’t be more than a backup. But as long as Jason gets the lion’s share of the starts in 2012, then I’ll be happy.

First Base: Brett Wallace. All the way. Let’s start seeing Brick every day regardless, and quit with this Carlos-Lee-at-1B-versus-lefties nonsense. Whether Astros management manages to trade El Caballo, releases him, benches him or just lets him play out his contract, it’s certain that Lee won’t be here beyond September 2012. Brett Wallace will. You’re not gonna win this season, it’s overwhelmingly likely that you won’t win next season either, and Brick is one of the few young talents that Houston has, so let him play and prove for himself whether he’s an everyday guy or only a platoon player.

Second Base: Jose Altuve is the brightest spot in the 2011 season so far. I certainly didn’t expect to see him before September at the soonest, or 2012, but I’m all about running him out there every day now that he’s here. I like Matt Downs a lot, but giving him or Angel Sanchez even 1/4 of the starts here would be infuriating. Let’s go, Mighty Mouse!!

Third Base: I’m a Chris Johnson kinda guy. Sure, I know that his defense is less than great, and his bat has dropped off even more than expected from last year, but his bat has also been a lot better the last several weeks than it was during a dismal start to the season, so his overall numbers are misleading. I know that Matt Downs deserves more time, too, but CJ has not (IMO) played himself out of this job yet. Let him keep it for the rest of 2011, unless he gets awful again, then let him and Downs duke it out in Kissimmee next Spring.

Shortstop: This is a tough one. As long as Clint Barmes is here, the job should be his, but I don’t see Clint in our long-term plans. He may not even be in our plans at all (hello, Milwaukee) after the next 10 days. But if/when he’s gone? Angel Sanchez is great off the bench, and I know that Matt Downs is more of a 2B/3B guy than SS, but this is where I’d be inclined to give Downs more time. If you want to give Angel the majority of the starts, that’s fine, but don’t let him take time away from Altuve and CJ. And don’t go back to Tommy Manzella. This is a stop-gap position until one of our middle infield prospects (Paredes? Villar? Mier? …Sutil?) is ready for the Show.

Outfield: No one knows what to expect here. I strongly doubt that Ed Wade will be able to send Carlos Lee anywhere, so as long as he’s here, leave him in LF. Michael Bourn is (or should be) serious trade bait, but Hunter Pence’s name is drawing a lot more attention than Michael’s, so who knows if he’ll be moved at all. I really… don’t want the Astros to trade Hunter, but reality is that he’ll likely hit free agency by the time that Houston is a legitimate contender again, and he should fetch better prospects than anyone else on the current Astros roster. So moving him might be the smartest thing that they could do, and I kind of expect now that it will happen. I’d really like to see Bourn traded, too; he’ll hit free agency – under Scott Boras – a year before Hunter, so you’ll probably get more for him now than next year, when he would be a “rental.” Jason Bourgeois is back from the DL today, so assuming that Pence and Bourn move and Lee doesn’t, I’d like to see a Lee-Bourgeois-Bogusevic outfield to finish out 2011. Though I know we’re more likely to see Jason Michaels than Bogey, but I don’t see Jason here beyond this year either, so I’ll be frustrated if they don’t give Bogey the shot. Unless they get somebody back in trade that can play outfield immediately, too. Or they put J.D. Martinez on the Altuve Express and don’t make him wait for a call until El Caballo rides off into the sunset. Summary: Whatever. But just not Michaels.

Pitching: Jordan Lyles is the other brightest spot for the 2011 Astros, and I’m thrilled to hear that he’s on an innings limit. If that means we get a month of Nelson Figueroa or Ryan Rowland-Smith in September, so be it; Jordan Lyles is VERY much a part of Houston’s future plans, so he needs to be protected more than the 2011 squad needs to win one or two more games. Bud Norris has been another big bright spot, better than I thought he’d be, so he should be a part of the grander plan as well. J.A. Happ has been mostly a black hole this season, but he is still young, so there’s no harm in continuing to run him out there and hope that he figures it out. Really though, we might see a lot more of Figgy or Hyphen before September, because I don’t expect Wandy or Brett Myers to be wearing Houston pinstripes after next week either. So let’s move Aneury Rodriguez back to the rotation and see what he’s got. Old or not, I’d love to see Andy Van Hekken get a shot. Then if you need a starter after those two guys, give Figgy or Hyphen a call. Of course trade acquisitions are the wild card here, too, but based on who we know we’ve got, I’ll be happy to finish the year with Aneury and Andy at the back end of the rotation.

I know that I haven’t touched on the bullpen, but that’s been so fluid for the last few years that I hesitate to name names. I like Mark Melancon a lot, and Wilton Lopez. We know that Brandon Lyon is under contract for next season – fine. He’s good when healthy. But the fundamental point of this whole exercise is to say: Give the young guys a chance. Angel Sanchez is not your savior for the future, nor is Jason Michaels. Nor is Carlos Lee at first base. If we can see more Castro, and Wallace, and Altuve, and CJ, more Bogey and Bourgeois and maybe some J.D. next year, then I’ll be excited even if we lose 100 games again. I know that even all of those guys aren’t likely the long-term answers, but they’re all a step in the right direction until the pipeline on the farm starts a steady flow again. If “these are our Astros,” then let’s make that so and stop giving time to guys that won’t be here when our future Astros arrive.

Dear Jim Crane,

We need to talk. I know that you’re not officially the owner of the Houston Astros yet (though we expected you would be by now), but that appears to be a mere formality. Our team will soon be yours. As a lifelong die-hard Astros fan, I think you’ll find my opinions on the following matters are shared by the majority of the fan base that you’re about to be introduced to. So I hope that you’ll listen and give our voice very serious consideration.

This Astros-to-the-AL thing isn’t going away. They’re saying now that you’ll probably go along with it to keep from rocking the boat in the MLB landscape in your first act as an MLB owner. But please – PLEASE – rock that boat. Capsize the damn thing if you have to. It’s been said that you’re already disliked by many or most of the other 29 owners, so you’ll want to start out by trying to make nice. But does the opinion of Bud Selig and those other 29 owners really matter more than the opinion of the fans of your own team? Do you really have a greater responsibility to them than you do to us? Remember, we’re your customers; you’re a businessman, and a very good one, so I trust that you know the importance of customers to any business. Your soon-to-be fellow owners may be your colleagues, but they’re also your competitors. As a MLB owner, it should be your ultimate goal to go out there every year and beat those other 29 teams. Why would you make a choice to please 29 rivals, and simultaneously alienate millions of potential supporters? Millions of your neighbors?

It’s unfortunate that you have to take over our once-proud franchise when they’re as low as they’ve ever been. But please don’t let anyone use that weakness as leverage against you. Have a spine. If you piss off Bud Selig & Co. by flat-out refusing to move to the AL, we’ll love you for it. It will endear you to your Astros fan base immediately, and it will go a long way towards rejuvenating the downtrodden and disillusioned populace of Astros Nation. Houston was a great baseball town until we were forced to watch our team make dumb decision after dumb decision, burying themselves alive for the last several years. The fans will come back if you give them reason to.

Whenever the team is finally yours, go ahead and make it your own. Fire Ed Wade if you must, though that’s not really fair to Ed. He’s done a good job with a bad situation, but if you can pry fellow Houstonian Andrew Friedman away from the Rays, I do believe that he’d be an upgrade. And it would be another step towards reestablishing that connection between the Astros and their Houstonian fans. Trade whomever you feel you need to in order to improve the club for the long haul (though not Hunter Pence – please not Hunter Pence). I’d keep Brad Mills around too, but go ahead and bring in George Postolos and whomever else you think will help get our team back on track. We want to believe that you’re the man who will finally deliver what Drayton McLane always talked about but never quite achieved – a championship.

Just don’t move us to the American League.

Thanks for reading, if you read this. Congrats on finally getting that MLB team that you sought for so long; I’m glad that it’s ours. Best of luck on the new venture. We’re in this together, so let’s start kicking some butt. And beat the Rangers to the first World Series championship in the State of Texas.

Sincerely,

an Astros fan

Astros to the AL?

I have two words for that.

HELL. And NO.

I love National League baseball. Houston is a National League city. Houston has ALWAYS been a National League city – even dating back before the now half-a-century of Astros/Colt .45s history, the Houston Buffs were a St. Louis Cardinals affiliate. I don’t give a flip about most of the American League teams, and if you’re talking about rivalries, I daresay I feel a stronger rivalry against virtually every other NL team than I do against the Rangers. I’d be willing to bet that a large majority of other Astros fans are right there with me.

I also don’t like this bizarre division-less realignment format that’s being proposed, though I realize that at least there is historical baseball precedent for that. But that was with many fewer teams in each league, and most baseball fans today (including myself) have never known anything but the divisional format. Do we really NEED five teams from each league in the playoffs each year? The wildcard was added back in the ’90s to increase fan interest and to allow teams like the 103-win ’93 San Francisco Giants to make the postseason even if they’re stuck behind someone like the 104-win ’93 Atlanta Braves. I believe that it’s accomplished both of those goals admirably, and I don’t foresee any significant benefit from changing it.

It’s also been mentioned that the Diamondbacks might be moved to the AL, and their owner seems rather more open to that. I also think that proposal makes hella much more sense. In Phoenix, you’re talking about only 13 years of NL history, versus Houston’s 50+. Arizona’s greatest baseball tradition before the D-backs was the Cactus League, home to spring training for AL and NL teams alike, so the fans there are used to both brands of baseball. As of today, the only two MLB teams in the Mountain Time Zone are Arizona and Colorado, both in the National League, so I would think that MLB would be interested in creating a stronger American League presence in the region. And if you then want to move Houston to the NL West to fill Arizona’s vacated spot – by all means, bring it on! Texas does fine as a member of the AL West, and Houston was already a member of the NL West back before the three-division format. Old rivalries with the Dodgers and Giants were great fun, and even though the State of Texas is mostly located in the Central Time Zone, Texas is still more readily considered a “Western” state in the popular public consciousness than likely any other state due north of us.

There’s nothing odd about Houston in a “West” division. Let’s just keep the AL outta here, thanks.

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